With Bernie Sanders now out, Joe Biden is set to become the Democratic nominee and face off against President Trump in November. Early polls give the former vice president the edge in an election upended by the coronavirus outbreak, but Trump has shown he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to secure an election.
Biden has led in every one-on-one poll against Trump taken in the last month and a half, as Vox notes, with a recent CNN poll showing Biden leading Trump 53% to 42% among 875 registered voters.
National polling averages, too, give Biden the edge; a Real Clear Politics general election poll tracker has the former vice president up 6.4 points over Trump.
However, the presumptive nominee’s chances look less set in stone when you look at polls by state. In the 2016 election, Trump showed he can capture the White House without winning the national popular vote by driving up turnout among his base in key states pivotal to winning the Electoral College.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Forbes it’s possible Trump could become the first president in U.S. history to win back-to-back elections without winning the popular vote, adding the president was the favorite as an incumbent: “Democrats could rack up all these extra votes that don’t even matter because of the Electoral College.”
In an analysis of state-by-state polling conducted in November 2019, one year ahead of the 2020 election, the New York Times NYT found Biden polling ahead of Trump in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona, and in a dead heat with Trump in Michigan Full Story - Jack Brewster - Forbes
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